An Index to Better Estimate Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change in the Western North Pacific

Woojeong Lee; Sung-Hun Kim; Pao-Shin Chu; Il-Ju Moon; Alexander Soloviev

doi:10.1029/2019gl083273

An Index to Better Estimate Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change in the Western North Pacific

Woojeong Lee
, Sung-Hun Kim
, Pao-Shin Chu
, Il-Ju Moon
, Alexander Soloviev

Department of Marine and Environmental Sciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

11 Scopus citations

Abstract

A revised predictor called the net energy gain rate ( NGR ) is suggested by considering wind dependent drag coefficient based on the existing maximum potential intensity theory. A series of wind speed dependent NGR , known as NGR&hyphen;w, is calculated based on pre&hyphen;tropical cyclone (TC) averaged ocean temperatures from the surface down to 120 m (at 10&hyphen;m intervals) to include the TC&hyphen;induced vertical mixing for 13 years (2004–2016) in the western North Pacific. It turns out that the NGR 50 &hyphen;w ( NGR&hyphen;w based on temperature averaged over top 50 m) has the highest correlation with 24&hyphen;h TC intensity change compared with the commonly used sea surface temperature&hyphen;based intensification potential ( POT ), depth&hyphen;averaged temperature&hyphen;based POT (POT DAT ) , and constant drag coefficient in the NGR . To demonstrate the effectiveness of the NGR 50 &hyphen;w , we designed and conducted experiments for training (2004–2014) and testing (2015–2016). The model with the NGR 50 &hyphen;w shows greater skill than the model with POT DAT or POT by reducing prediction errors by about 16%.

Original language	American English
Pages (from-to)	8960-8968
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl083273
State	Published - Jul 16 2019

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
©2019. The Authors.

Keywords

Drag coefficient
Intensity prediction
Rapid intensification
Tropical cyclone
Upper ocean thermal structure

Disciplines

Marine Biology
Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology

Access to Document

10.1029/2019gl083273

An Index to Better Estimate Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change inFinal published version, 981 KBLicense: Unspecified

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@article{2e7a709255c747a8a877c14bf96aaf80,

title = "An Index to Better Estimate Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change in the Western North Pacific",

abstract = " A revised predictor called the net energy gain rate ( NGR ) is suggested by considering wind dependent drag coefficient based on the existing maximum potential intensity theory. A series of wind speed dependent NGR , known as NGR\&hyphen;w, is calculated based on pre\&hyphen;tropical cyclone (TC) averaged ocean temperatures from the surface down to 120 m (at 10\&hyphen;m intervals) to include the TC\&hyphen;induced vertical mixing for 13 years (2004\–2016) in the western North Pacific. It turns out that the NGR 50 \&hyphen;w ( NGR\&hyphen;w based on temperature averaged over top 50 m) has the highest correlation with 24\&hyphen;h TC intensity change compared with the commonly used sea surface temperature\&hyphen;based intensification potential ( POT ), depth\&hyphen;averaged temperature\&hyphen;based POT (POT DAT ) , and constant drag coefficient in the NGR . To demonstrate the effectiveness of the NGR 50 \&hyphen;w , we designed and conducted experiments for training (2004\–2014) and testing (2015\–2016). The model with the NGR 50 \&hyphen;w shows greater skill than the model with POT DAT or POT by reducing prediction errors by about 16\%.",

keywords = "Drag coefficient, Intensity prediction, Rapid intensification, Tropical cyclone, Upper ocean thermal structure",

author = "Woojeong Lee and Sung-Hun Kim and Pao-Shin Chu and Il-Ju Moon and Alexander Soloviev",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright}2019. The Authors.",

year = "2019",

month = jul,

day = "16",

doi = "10.1029/2019gl083273",

language = "American English",

pages = "8960--8968",

journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",

issn = "0094-8276",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - An Index to Better Estimate Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change in the Western North Pacific

AU - Lee, Woojeong

AU - Kim, Sung-Hun

AU - Chu, Pao-Shin

AU - Moon, Il-Ju

AU - Soloviev, Alexander

PY - 2019/7/16

Y1 - 2019/7/16

N2 - A revised predictor called the net energy gain rate ( NGR ) is suggested by considering wind dependent drag coefficient based on the existing maximum potential intensity theory. A series of wind speed dependent NGR , known as NGR&hyphen;w, is calculated based on pre&hyphen;tropical cyclone (TC) averaged ocean temperatures from the surface down to 120 m (at 10&hyphen;m intervals) to include the TC&hyphen;induced vertical mixing for 13 years (2004–2016) in the western North Pacific. It turns out that the NGR 50 &hyphen;w ( NGR&hyphen;w based on temperature averaged over top 50 m) has the highest correlation with 24&hyphen;h TC intensity change compared with the commonly used sea surface temperature&hyphen;based intensification potential ( POT ), depth&hyphen;averaged temperature&hyphen;based POT (POT DAT ) , and constant drag coefficient in the NGR . To demonstrate the effectiveness of the NGR 50 &hyphen;w , we designed and conducted experiments for training (2004–2014) and testing (2015–2016). The model with the NGR 50 &hyphen;w shows greater skill than the model with POT DAT or POT by reducing prediction errors by about 16%.

AB - A revised predictor called the net energy gain rate ( NGR ) is suggested by considering wind dependent drag coefficient based on the existing maximum potential intensity theory. A series of wind speed dependent NGR , known as NGR&hyphen;w, is calculated based on pre&hyphen;tropical cyclone (TC) averaged ocean temperatures from the surface down to 120 m (at 10&hyphen;m intervals) to include the TC&hyphen;induced vertical mixing for 13 years (2004–2016) in the western North Pacific. It turns out that the NGR 50 &hyphen;w ( NGR&hyphen;w based on temperature averaged over top 50 m) has the highest correlation with 24&hyphen;h TC intensity change compared with the commonly used sea surface temperature&hyphen;based intensification potential ( POT ), depth&hyphen;averaged temperature&hyphen;based POT (POT DAT ) , and constant drag coefficient in the NGR . To demonstrate the effectiveness of the NGR 50 &hyphen;w , we designed and conducted experiments for training (2004–2014) and testing (2015–2016). The model with the NGR 50 &hyphen;w shows greater skill than the model with POT DAT or POT by reducing prediction errors by about 16%.

KW - Drag coefficient

KW - Intensity prediction

KW - Rapid intensification

KW - Tropical cyclone

KW - Upper ocean thermal structure

UR - https://nsuworks.nova.edu/occ_facarticles/1016

U2 - 10.1029/2019gl083273

DO - 10.1029/2019gl083273

M3 - Article

SN - 0094-8276

SP - 8960

EP - 8968

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

ER -

An Index to Better Estimate Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change in the Western North Pacific

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Keywords

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