Determining the probability that an employee will stay or leave the organization: a mathematical and theoretical model for organizations

This article offers a simple mathematical and theoretical model for understanding voluntary turnover, as an interdisciplinary (social, psychological, and economic contexts) and multidimensional (employee, organization, and social affiliate) construct. The model provides a mathematical formula, received from assumptions, intended for use in determining the “probability that employees will stay or leave” an organization versus the traditional approach of determining the “intentions of staying” and/or the “intentions of leaving” the organization. Differences between existing concepts (intentions of quitting) and this model are discussed. The model hypothesizes that the “probability of staying or leaving” the organization (E — (P.i)) or (1 — (P.i)) should be positively related to the employee's “intentions of quitting” the organization. The model does not focus on the numerous individual determinants of employee turnover, as is the case with existing voluntary turnover models, but focuses on these determinants as internal (Employer [E]) and external (Social Affiliate [i]) factors relative to the Employee (P), who either stays with or leaves the organization. The article also suggests that leaving and staying behaviors are concepts on the same platform. They are not different thoughts or necessarily opposites.