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Forecasting bank solvency: An emphasis on loan quality

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter

Abstract

We propose a method for forecasting bank solvency that quantifies bank solvency as the probability that a bank will have more than 0.25 of the cash to total asset ratio. Predictor variables include the ratio of loans secured by farmland to total loans, the ratio of loans to farmers to total loans, and the ratio of commercial and industrial loans to total loans. Loans secured by farmland to total loans significantly predicted the potential for insolvency. To a secondary extent, commercial and industrial loans significantly predicted bank failure. This result was validated with predicted probabilities significantly explaining cash to total assets.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationAdvances in Business and Management Forecasting
EditorsKenneth Lawrence, Ronald Klimberg
PublisherEmerald Group Publishing
Pages67-75
Number of pages9
ISBN (Print)9780857249593
DOIs
StatePublished - 2011

Publication series

NameAdvances in Business and Management Forecasting
Volume8
ISSN (Print)1477-4070

ASJC Scopus Subject Areas

  • General Business,Management and Accounting

Disciplines

  • Business

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