Phase-Adjusted Estimation of the COVID-19 Outbreak in South Korea Under Multi-Source Data and Adjustment Measures: A Modelling Study

Xiaomei Feng; Jing Chen; Kai Wang; Lei Wang; Fengqin Zhang; Zhen Jin; Lan Zou; Xia Wang

Phase-Adjusted Estimation of the COVID-19 Outbreak in South Korea Under Multi-Source Data and Adjustment Measures: A Modelling Study

Xiaomei Feng
, Jing Chen
, Kai Wang
, Lei Wang
, Fengqin Zhang
, Zhen Jin
, Lan Zou
, Xia Wang

Department of Mathematics

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

11 Scopus citations

Abstract

Based on the reported data from February 16, 2020 to March 9, 2020 in South Korea including confirmed cases, death cases and recovery cases, the control reproduction number was estimated respectively at different control measure phases using Markov chain Monte Carlo method and presented using the resulting posterior mean and 95% credible interval (C_rI). At the early phase from February 16 to February 24, we estimate the basic reproduction number R₀ of COVID-19 to be 4.79(95% C_rI 4.38 - 5.2). The estimated control reproduction number dropped rapidly to R_c ≈ 0.32(95% C_rI 0.19 - 0.47) at the second phase from February 25 to March 2 because of the voluntary lockdown measures. At the third phase from March 3 to March 9, we estimate R_c to be 0.27 (95% C_rI 0.14 - 0.42). We predict that the final size of the COVID-19 outbreak in South Korea is 9661 (95% C_rI 8660 - 11100) and the whole epidemic will be over by late April. It is found that reducing contact rate and enhancing the testing speed will have the impact on the peak value and the peak time.

Original language	American English
Pages (from-to)	3637-3648
Number of pages	12
Journal	Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
Volume	17
Issue number	4
State	Published - May 18 2020

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 the Author(s).

Funding

X.M.F received funding from China Postdoctoral Science Foundation [2019M653529], the National Science Foundation of China [11501498], the Natural Science Foundation of Shanxi Province [201801D221035, 201901D111295], Scientific and Technological Innovation Programs of Higher Education Institutions in Shanxi (STIP) [2019L0861]. J.C. received funding from the National Science Foundation [1853562]. K.W. received funding from the National Science Foundation of China [11571273]. L.Z. received funding from the National Science Foundation of China [11831012, 11771168]. X.W. received funding from the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities [GK202003005].

Funders	Funder number
STIP	2019L0861
Scientific and Technological Innovation Programs of Higher Education Institutions in Shanxi
National Science Foundation	11771168, 11571273, 11831012, 1853562
National Natural Science Foundation of China	11501498
China Postdoctoral Science Foundation	2019M653529
Natural Science Foundation of Shanxi Province	201801D221035, 201901D111295
Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities	GK202003005

ASJC Scopus Subject Areas

Modeling and Simulation
General Agricultural and Biological Sciences
Computational Mathematics
Applied Mathematics

Keywords

COVID-19
Mathematical modeling
The final size
The reproduction number
Mathematical modelling

Disciplines

Epidemiology
Mathematics

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title = "Phase-Adjusted Estimation of the COVID-19 Outbreak in South Korea Under Multi-Source Data and Adjustment Measures: A Modelling Study",

abstract = "Based on the reported data from February 16, 2020 to March 9, 2020 in South Korea including confirmed cases, death cases and recovery cases, the control reproduction number was estimated respectively at different control measure phases using Markov chain Monte Carlo method and presented using the resulting posterior mean and 95\% credible interval (CrI). At the early phase from February 16 to February 24, we estimate the basic reproduction number R0 of COVID-19 to be 4.79(95\% CrI 4.38 - 5.2). The estimated control reproduction number dropped rapidly to Rc ≈ 0.32(95\% CrI 0.19 - 0.47) at the second phase from February 25 to March 2 because of the voluntary lockdown measures. At the third phase from March 3 to March 9, we estimate Rc to be 0.27 (95\% CrI 0.14 - 0.42). We predict that the final size of the COVID-19 outbreak in South Korea is 9661 (95\% CrI 8660 - 11100) and the whole epidemic will be over by late April. It is found that reducing contact rate and enhancing the testing speed will have the impact on the peak value and the peak time.",

keywords = "COVID-19, Mathematical modeling, The final size, The reproduction number, Mathematical modelling",

author = "Xiaomei Feng and Jing Chen and Kai Wang and Lei Wang and Fengqin Zhang and Zhen Jin and Lan Zou and Xia Wang",

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year = "2020",

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pages = "3637--3648",

journal = "Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering",

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T1 - Phase-Adjusted Estimation of the COVID-19 Outbreak in South Korea Under Multi-Source Data and Adjustment Measures: A Modelling Study

AU - Feng, Xiaomei

AU - Chen, Jing

AU - Wang, Kai

AU - Wang, Lei

AU - Zhang, Fengqin

AU - Jin, Zhen

AU - Zou, Lan

AU - Wang, Xia

PY - 2020/5/18

Y1 - 2020/5/18

N2 - Based on the reported data from February 16, 2020 to March 9, 2020 in South Korea including confirmed cases, death cases and recovery cases, the control reproduction number was estimated respectively at different control measure phases using Markov chain Monte Carlo method and presented using the resulting posterior mean and 95% credible interval (CrI). At the early phase from February 16 to February 24, we estimate the basic reproduction number R0 of COVID-19 to be 4.79(95% CrI 4.38 - 5.2). The estimated control reproduction number dropped rapidly to Rc ≈ 0.32(95% CrI 0.19 - 0.47) at the second phase from February 25 to March 2 because of the voluntary lockdown measures. At the third phase from March 3 to March 9, we estimate Rc to be 0.27 (95% CrI 0.14 - 0.42). We predict that the final size of the COVID-19 outbreak in South Korea is 9661 (95% CrI 8660 - 11100) and the whole epidemic will be over by late April. It is found that reducing contact rate and enhancing the testing speed will have the impact on the peak value and the peak time.

AB - Based on the reported data from February 16, 2020 to March 9, 2020 in South Korea including confirmed cases, death cases and recovery cases, the control reproduction number was estimated respectively at different control measure phases using Markov chain Monte Carlo method and presented using the resulting posterior mean and 95% credible interval (CrI). At the early phase from February 16 to February 24, we estimate the basic reproduction number R0 of COVID-19 to be 4.79(95% CrI 4.38 - 5.2). The estimated control reproduction number dropped rapidly to Rc ≈ 0.32(95% CrI 0.19 - 0.47) at the second phase from February 25 to March 2 because of the voluntary lockdown measures. At the third phase from March 3 to March 9, we estimate Rc to be 0.27 (95% CrI 0.14 - 0.42). We predict that the final size of the COVID-19 outbreak in South Korea is 9661 (95% CrI 8660 - 11100) and the whole epidemic will be over by late April. It is found that reducing contact rate and enhancing the testing speed will have the impact on the peak value and the peak time.

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KW - Mathematical modeling

KW - The final size

KW - The reproduction number

KW - Mathematical modelling

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C2 - 32987548

SN - 1547-1063

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EP - 3648

JO - Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

JF - Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

IS - 4

ER -

Phase-Adjusted Estimation of the COVID-19 Outbreak in South Korea Under Multi-Source Data and Adjustment Measures: A Modelling Study

Abstract

Bibliographical note

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Keywords

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