Prediction of Sudden Cardiac Death Using Ensemble Classifiers

Sudden Cardiac Death (SCD) is a medical problem that is responsible for over 300,000 deaths per year in the United States and millions worldwide. SCD is defined as death occurring from within one hour of the onset of acute symptoms, an unwitnessed death in the absence of pre-existing progressive circulatory failures or other causes of deaths, or death during attempted resuscitation. Sudden death due to cardiac reasons is a leading cause of death among Congestive Heart Failure (CHF) patients. The use of Electronic Medical Records (EMR) systems has made a wealth of medical data available for research and analysis. Supervised machine learning methods have been successfully used for medical diagnosis. Ensemble classifiers are known to achieve better prediction accuracy than its constituent base classifiers. In an effort to understand the factors contributing to SCD, data on 2,521 patients were collected for the Sudden Cardiac Death in Heart Failure Trial (SCD-HeFT). The data included 96 features that were gathered over a period of 5 years. The goal of this work was to develop a model that could accurately predict SCD based on available features. The prediction model used the Cox proportional hazards model as a score and then used the ExtraTreesClassifier algorithm as a boosting mechanism to create the ensemble. We tested the system at prediction point of 180 days. Our best results were at 180-days with accuracy of 0.9624, specificity of 0.9915, and F1 score of 0.9607.