Resource utilization prediction: A proposal for information technology research

Research into predicting long-term resource needs has been faced with a very difficult problem of extending the accuracy period beyond the immediate future. Business forecasting has overcome this limitation by successfully incorporating the concept of human interaction as the basis of prediction patterns at the hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly time frames. Computer resource utilization is also impacted by human interaction therefore influencing research into predictability of resource usage based on human access patterns. Emulated human web server access data was captured in a feasibility study that used time series analysis to predict future resource usage. For prediction beyond several minutes, results indicate that the majority of projected resource usage was within an 80% confidence level thus supporting the foundation of future resource prediction work in this area.